Diploma Thesis Defense by Mr Ilias Manolakis
Thesis Title: «Analysis and sustainability of Greek electricity network»
Monday 21 December 2020, at: 14:00,
- Professor Theocharis Tsoutsos (advisor)
- Associate Professor Tryfon Daras
- Associate Professor Dionysia Kolokotsa
The aim of the present thesis is the analysis of the electrical network in Greece, namely the operational method. In addition, the electrical consumption, in low and medium voltage, is predicted. Also, the renewable energy contribution percentage is observed, as far as the final electrical energy consumption in the year 2030, is concerned.
Firstly, the operational method for international and European electrical energy market is being analyzed, with useful information concerning the import of the international energy market and the various operational models worldwide. According to the Paris Agreement, environmental terms have been set, along with compulsory goal achievement until 2050. The European energy stock market situation is being portrayed according to which, the Greek energy stock market is obliged to concur. Following the present phase, the country’s electrical network and energy stock market, is being present.
Moving on to the technical part of this project, Greek’s future domestic energy consumption to the grid is being estimated, relevant data is being collected about the low and medium grid voltage monthly consumption, monthly temperature and system’s monthly limit value. As a first approach, the method of multiple regression takes place with the consumption being the codependent derivative, but there was no linear correlation between the data to obtain a prediction. Thus, the time series prediction methods were embraced and chosen. Between two approaching methods the most efficient one turned out to be the time series decomposition (multiplicative model), due to the intense seasonality of the primary electrical energy monthly consumption data. This model predicts that for the year 2030, 38.204GWh will be needed for low and medium voltage consumption. Additionally, total renewable sources contribution to the final electrical energy consumption is being predicted through trend analysis. For the year 2030, it is estimated that 17.505GWh of electrical energy will be produced from light energy forms such us wind energy, photovoltaics, biogas. Finally, three cases about the penetration of renewable sources in future domestic electrical energy needs is analyzed. Also, the investment cost for extended installed capacity and the future reduction from carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are calculated.
In conclusion, given the existed data, the preferable renewable sources contribution to the total national energy consumption is not achieved by the year 2030 (60% contribution) as the national energy and climate plan predicts (46% thesis estimation). A higher achievement possibility by 2030, will may occur if the bureaucracy for renewable sources installation gets simplified.